Muslim Voters Have Numbers to Influence Outcome in Battleground Calgary Electoral Divisions That Will Swing the Alberta Election

Written by The Canadian Muslim Vote

Published in News

CALGARY, AB The Canadian-Muslim Vote (TCMV), a non-partisan voter education and mobilization charity, released a list of 18 Calgary and Edmonton electoral divisions where the number of Muslim voters exceeds the projected margin of victory. These include 13 of the 15 (87%) divisions projected to be won by just 5% or fewer votes, including Calgary-Acadia, which is projected to be pivotal for a 44-seat majority. In the remaining two divisions projected to be won by 5% or less Muslims are within a few hundred votes of the projected margin of victory.

Many of the battleground races that will decide the Alberta election are in Calgary where there is a substantial Muslim population. TCMV’s data is based on projections from 338Canada.com and a custom tabulation from Statistics Canada of Muslim voters in each electoral division.

Umair Ashraf, Executive Director of The Canadian-Muslim Vote, said “Alberta’s Muslim communities are making our voices heard this election on issues such as affordability by getting out our vote, and we have the numbers to make the difference in the battleground electoral divisions the election will turn on. Our voters outnumber the projected difference between who wins and who’s runner up.”

The list of electoral divisions where Muslim voters outnumber the projected margin of victory is below, bold are divisions projected to be won by 5% or less of the vote by 338Canada.com. This includes Calgary-Acadia, notable as the pivotal division for a 44-seat majority:

CALGARY-CROSS
CALGARY-FOOTHILLS
CALGARY-NORTH EAST
CALGARY-FALCONRIDGE
CALGARY-NORTH
CALGARY-BHULLAR-MCCALL
EDMONTON-SOUTH WEST
CALGARY-NORTH WEST
CALGARY-EDGEMONT
CALGARY-BOW
CALGARY-BEDDINGTON
CALGARY-EAST
EDMONTON-CASTLE DOWNS
CALGARY-GLENMORE
EDMONTON-DECORE
CALGARY-ACADIA
CALGARY-ELBOW
MORINVILLE-ST. ALBERT

In the remaining 2 electoral divisions projected to be decided within 5% of the vote, Muslim voters are within a few hundred votes of the projected margin of victory:

LETHBRIDGE-EAST
BANFF-KANANASKIS

Note on methodology: a custom tabulation of Muslim voters in each electoral division from the 2021 census was commissioned by The Canadian-Muslim Vote from Statistics Canada. Projected vote percent results from 338Canada.com as of May 24, 2023 were applied to Elections Alberta’s 2023 elector counts and the 2019 turnout for each electoral division to calculate the margin of victory as a number of votes.

About The Canadian-Muslim Vote:

The Canadian-Muslim Vote was founded in 2015 to mobilize the now almost 900,000 Muslim voters across Canada at all levels of government in a non-partisan manner and is a registered charity with the Canada Revenue Agency. There are over 100,000 Muslim voters in Alberta.