The Canadian Muslim Vote’s “Muslim Vote Weekend” Brings Muslims to Advance Polls in 64 Ridings, Including 20 “Toss Up” Races

Of these ridings, 20 have been declared as “Toss Up” races (predicted margin of victory at 5% or less) by 338Canada.com (see table below for list). Muslim voters posted photos to social media of themselves at the polls and social media influencers have been encouraging Muslims to vote with the caption “I’m voting because I matter.”

Some of the key achievements of the just-concluded “Muslim Vote Weekend” include:

Over 100 volunteers distributed 20,000 pieces of Get Out The Vote literature throughout 64 ridings from Vancouver to Whitehorse to St. John’s, Newfoundland, including to 7,500 doors.

80,224 phone calls were made to Muslim voters, including by volunteers who joined the national “remote” phone canvass and called from their homes.

TCMV’s social media campaign had 200,268 impressions and reached 112,624 people on Facebook and Instagram (30% engagement rate) just over the holiday weekend.

A table of “Toss Up” ridings covered by the campaign is included below. In all but one of the ridings the population of Muslim voters is within 1,000 votes of deciding the outcome based on 338Canada.com’s predictions and the 2015 turnout.

TCMV Executive Director Ali Manek said, “The Canadian-Muslim Vote’s “Muslim Vote Weekend’ campaign has broken down barriers to democratic participation by educating Muslims about voting early through Friday sermons, fliers, door-knocking, phone banking, and social media including our chatbot. We have brought Muslims to the Advance Polls to make sure our voice is heard. For many in our community, this election is their first time voting. Our Get Out The Vote campaign continues at full speed through Election Day focusing on our Imam Video Series aimed to break down religious stigmas to voting, our influencers campaign to target youth, and our upcoming “First Time Voters” events in Toronto and Ottawa to make sure our community is fully engaged.”

The Canadian-Muslim Vote was founded in 2015 with the mandate to educate and mobilize the estimated 767,000+ Muslim voters across Canada at all levels of government in a non-partisan way. It is estimated that in the 2018 Ontario provincial election Get Out The Vote campaign The Canadian-Muslim Vote had nearly 2-million touchpoints with the Muslim community. TCMV was also very active in both the 2018 Quebec provincial elections as well as the Ontario municipal elections in October 2018. In the recently concluded Alberta provincial election mosques used Friday sermons to encourage Muslims to vote.

For more information on the Canadian-Muslim Vote, please visit www.canadianmuslimvote.ca

Table of Toss Up Ridings Covered by “Muslim Vote Weekend” (see explanatory notes below)

Riding Province Predicted Margin of Victory (%) Muslim Voters Predicted Margin of Victory (Votes) 1st Place 2nd Place

Fleetwood-Port Kells BC 0.2% 3,268 98 CPC LPC

Sherbrooke QB 0.5% 1,391 287 BQ LPC

Markham-Stouffville ON 0.8% 4,446 478 LPC CPC

Québec QB 1.6% 700 862 LPC BQ

York Centre ON 1.7% 2,836 730 LPC CPC

Davenport ON 1.9% 2,158 942 NDP LPC

Yukon YT 2.3% 45 467 LPC CPC

Mississauga-Erin Mills ON 2.7% 14,104 1,494 LPC CPC

Halifax NS 2.9% 1,005 1,538 LPC NDP

Mississauga-Lakeshore ON 3.2% 8,289 1,792 CPC LPC

Scarborough--Agincourt ON 3.2% 5,473 1,330 LPC CPC

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek ON 3.5% 3,469 1,762 NDP LPC

Brampton Centre ON 4.0% 6,055 1,585 LPC CPC

Brampton South ON 4.2% 4,411 1,909 LPC CPC

Oakville ON 4.2% 2,637 2,718 LPC CPC

Toronto--Danforth ON 4.3% 3,391 2,390 NDP LPC

Sault Ste. Marie ON 4.3% 49 1,882 LPC CPC

Oakville North-Burlington ON 4.4% 3,843 2,675 CPC LPC

Richmond Hill ON 4.5% 10,611 2,210 CPC LPC

Brampton North ON 4.6% 5,165 2,216 LPC CPC

The above table lists the “Muslim Vote Weekend” ridings that have been declared as “Toss Up” (predicted margin of victory within 5% of votes) by 338Canada.com as of October 14. It includes TCMV’s calculation of how many Muslim voters are in the riding, based on Statistics Canada models and custom tabulations, as well as a comparison with the number of votes needed to win based on 338Canada.com’s prediction and the 2015 voter turnout. Note that in all but one riding the number of Muslim voters is within 1,000 votes of deciding the outcome.